Challenge no.57


 

Toward a not-so-final agreement


The final-status agreement is top priority these days for PM Ehud Barak. He does not like the Wye Memorandum he inherited. Of the little territory he is willing to give up, he wants to keep all he can before negotiating the permanent arrangement, so that he will have some left to use in the last stages of bargaining. For that matter, his predecessor did not like Wye either. He too wanted to leap straight into the final talks. On him, however, Washington put the screws; it forced him to agree on yielding up 13% of the West Bank before taking a seat to discuss ultimate things. (Wye cost him that seat.) The logic of both PM's is clear: to give up as little as possible before the final round. The Palestinians follow the same logic in reverse: to get as much as they can today, for who knows what may happen tomorrow?
In the current talks, the issues are two: the release of prisoners and the schedule for Israeli withdrawals. The differences are inconsequential: Barak, in the end, will have to deliver what was agreed on at Wye. He is trying, however, to connect the last Wye withdrawal with the final arrangement – thus minimizing the damage. Here is the timing he prefers:
 


Concerning the implementation of Wye, there is a territorial difference between Barak and his predecessor. Benjamin Netanyahu felt the settlers breathing down his neck. In order to minimize their ire, he insisted that part of the 13% should be a piece of the so-called Judaean desert (far away from most of them). This piece was to be a nature reserve: the Palestinians would not be permitted to build there. Barak, on the other hand, has inherited Labor's "Allon Plan", in which the (less densely populated) eastern flank of the West Bank is to serve as an Israeli buffer zone. Barak would take the whole 13%, therefore, from the central highland region. His advisers point out to the Palestinians that this is "quality" land, which will give them territorial contiguity – and with no restrictions on development.
As for the security prisoners, the debate is centered on the number to be released. The Palestinians hold that there are still 650 who await their freedom under Wye. (Tricky Bibi released 250, but half were criminal offenders – not what Wye meant at all.) Barak, at this point, is prepared to release 300.
Beneath the current debate over timing and prisoners, there is a deeper issue of principle. Barak does not want to finish the Wye pullbacks only to find himself facing new demands based on UN Resolution 242 (which calls for the return of territories conquered in 1967). By the time he gets to the last phase of the Wye withdrawals, he wants to have a final-status framework which both sides interpret – in a legally binding agreement with ironclad international backing – as the fulfillment of Resolution 242. This principle has now been accepted. On September 1, Aluf Ben wrote in Ha’aretz: “Israel and the Palestinian Authority have agreed that the achievement of the permanent arrangement between them will be considered as the implementation of UN Resolution 242. …What this means is that after signing the permanent-status agreement, the sides will not be able to make additional claims.”

Arafat's insistence on the implementation of Wye is by no means gratuitous. It will give him about 42% of the West Bank, dispelling a part of the uncertainty that riddles his regime. So much remains "up in the air"! The territory of the Palestinian Authority (PA) still consists of land-bound islands. The government is chaotic. The dozen or so security forces resemble Mafiosi. Rivalry continues between the group that came from Tunis in 1994 and those who were already here. The PA's international legal status remains unclear.
Arafat requires a definite territory over which he can throw his aegis, a place he can tax and rule. The continuing uncertainty shakes his authority. The people live in a kind of vacuum, unclear to whom they belong. They relate to the PA as to an iffy proposition, a "state on condition".
When Arafat agreed not to discuss certain issues during the interim negotiations – namely Jerusalem, settlements, and refugees – in effect, he gave up on them. He knew he would not have enough cards later to impose his will. But he did not give up on the notion of having a definite territory. That is his dividend in the deal: a well-defined regime in a well-defined space. From the beginning, he went to Oslo with a feeling of defeat: given the international situation, he believed that anything he got out of Israel would be in the nature of a miracle – not by right, the fruit of struggle. As a result, although the permanent arrangement may indeed define borders, other topics will likely remain open. According to a Palestinian source –one close to the refugee issue – Arafat will never agree to cancel the right of return, or accede to Israel's demand that the refugees receive citizenship in the Arab lands where they reside. He will not give up the claim to Jerusalem either; instead, he will prefer to accept some sort of temporary arrangement.
It is not at all clear, therefore, that the final agreement will be one of "historical reconciliation" (i.e., surrender), such as Israel dreams of – one which signifies, at long last, Palestinian acceptance of Zionist rule over the greater part of the country. The agreement will consist, rather, of what Arafat is able and willing to sell to his people in his lifetime. Knowing that this time may be short, he will take care to avoid the stigma of Anwar Sadat, remembered today in the Arab world as the man who sold himself and his country to America.
The "question of Palestine" will remain a question. At Oslo Israel showed its preference for all of Palestine (de facto), rather than a fair (albeit still unjust) partition. Here it missed a rare opportunity to heal, at a small cost, the enormous injustice it inflicted on the Palestinian people midway through the century. On the other hand, no Palestinian organization has offered an alternative to the grotesque distortion of the national vision that has taken place under Arafat. The question of Palestine will not find a solution, therefore, until new social forces rise up to vanquish a global order that imposes Zionism.
 
 


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